At Contrarian Boston, David Van Voorhis, aka Statman, who’s not to be confused with his father and CB founder Scott V., offers explanations for why the betting markets have suddenly soured on Kamala Harris. … The kid certainly has a future in polling if he chooses to go down that route.
Month: October 2024
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Explaining Harris’s rapid decline in betting-market odds
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‘Two minority parties’
The second I heard it, I liked it, i.e. the term ‘two minority parties’ as a way to describe our contemporary Democratic and Republican parties. Neither seems capable of forging a majority coalition, largely because their bases won’t let them. … ‘Two minority parties’ via Ruy Teixeira and Yuval Levin, whose new study was cited by David Brooks in his latest NYT column. And I liked David’s descriptions of the ‘priesthoods’ now controlling the two parties.
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So Zelensky is to blame for the war?
Dear Trump supporters: This is your man.
Update – From a reader: “I thought he was going to blame the immigrants.”
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Immigration controversy in Massachusetts: It’s about the costs, not the fact migrants are here
The Globe has a well-balanced story this morning on immigration in Massachusetts, describing the recent influx of immigrants who are truly transforming the state. … What’s encouraging is that most Massachusetts residents welcome (or mostly welcome) immigrants. They’ve concluded, like I have, that the newcomers are mostly hard-working, law-abiding and friendly people, despite the rants of a certain obnoxious Orange Man running for president.
But there is rising concern/anger/resentment, as the Globe reports, at how much the state is spending on shelters and other services provided to the newcomers, raising complaints among both Republicans and Democrats that they’re getting “free rides” at the expense of long-time residents. And it’s a very legitimate complaint, IMHO, and it’s one of the reasons Dem lawmakers are rightly retreating somewhat from their previous open-arms approach to immigration.
Two other quick concerns that weren’t directly addressed in the story and are sort of small pet-peeves of mine: 1.) By spending so much on migrant shelters, education, health care, food stamps etc., are we effectively creating a long-term entitlement mindset among the newcomers? 2.) Are they developing a sense of civic and patriotic pride? I view this as key, especially since the Jan. 6, 2021 assault on the U.S. Capitol and fears of the weakening of our democracy. The last thing we need are new citizens (or future citizens) who are cynical and apathetic about America and our constitutional rights.
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Next time historic re-enactors show up at a restaurant dressed as Nazis, don’t serve them
The Hudson restaurant and its staff didn’t deserve the harassment they got after news outlets reported that the eatery had served patrons dressed as Nazi soldiers. The abuse got so bad that the Kith & Kin had to close on Tuesday.
As it turned out, the guys dressed as German soldiers were WWII reenactors who stopped in after the local American Heritage Museum’s annual “Battle for the Airfield” reenactment over the weekend in Hudson. They were accompanied by reenactors wearing old American GI uniforms. … The restaurant clearly should have asked the Nazi reenactors to change clothes or cover up their costumes, as the apologetic Kith & Kin now acknowledges. It was downright stupid not to do so, considering the recent rise in antisemitism. But it was an honest mistake. …
Fyi: I live in Hudson and I’ve frequented both the restaurant and museum. As far as I know, they’re owned and run by good people. And the annual “Battle for the Airfield” is a hugely popular event sponsored by the well-respected museum.
Update – 10-16-24 – I’ve since corrected my initial version of this post that stated the reenactors were dressed as SS troops. They weren’t. Just regular Wehrmacht soldiers. Which is bad enough.
Update II- 10-16-24- Scott Van Voorhis at Contrarian Boston is blaming the “boneheaded” reenactors themselves for trooping around town and going out to dinner in controversial uniforms. Good point. And he’s also reached out to the head of the museum to find out what new “protocols” he was talking about regarding behavior surrounding reenactments. Scott hasn’t heard back yet from the museum owner.
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Echoes of dot.com era: An e-commerce caskets firm even has its own mascot
The BBJ has the details. … At least they’re not bringing back disco.
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The long arc of a person’s politics …
David Brooks at The Atlantic chronicles his intellectual and political journey from democratic socialism to conservatism and then drifting back to the center where he hovers today, 70 percent Dem and 30 percent GOP, using his own measurement. … I guess you can say I’ve had a similar intellectual and political journey over roughly the same time period, though I started out as a New Deal Democrat, not a democratic socialist, and ended up roughly back in New Deal Democrat territory, though no one refers to it that way anymore. … I’d add: Changing one’s political views, if only a little, is strangely exciting, a small drama playing out in your mind, a pleasant mix of confusion and clarity.
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‘Race is a less significant political force than many progressives believe’
Sorry for harping on this point, but here’s another NYT piece, this time by David Leonhardt, that shows why class is so important in this year’s presidential election – and how it’s playing out among Black and Hispanic working-class voters. …
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Dems’ Black and Hispanic voter problems, continued
The NYT’s Nate Cohn has some explanations about why Dems are losing so many Black and Hispanic voters to Donald Trump. He doesn’t address the working-class/non-college voter component that I raised in a previous post, but it’s still a very good list. …
One of Nate’s explanations isn’t misogyny, the classic all-purpose hectoring explanation that fits so neatly into many (though not all) progressives’ identity-politics view of the world. I gotta say I’m kind of disappointed Obama made/hinted at this overly simplistic misogyny explanation. To be clear: there’s some misogyny at play, but not nearly to the degree the poll numbers suggest for both Black and Hispanic workers. Burrowing down into the survey results, you see a lot of explanations for the shift (such as concerns over the economy, crime, immigration, etc.), not one single explanation, as Cohn notes. Many Dems have foolishly ignored these and other factors in the past — and they’re doing it again now.
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Another supply-chain shock: IV fluid shortage forces suspension of non-emergency surgeries
From chip shortages to exploding pagers, MGB’s suspension of non-emergency surgeries due to an IV shortage is yet the latest example of how vulnerable critical supply-chains are to natural and man-made disruptions.
Hub Blog 