The NYT touts its latest Times/Siena survey showing Kamala Harris pulling ahead in a national poll. But … haven’t we learned by now that it’s the electoral-college contest that counts, not the national votes? 

This is yet another feather in the cap for UMass Medical School, the school’s second Nobel Prize winner in less than 20 years. It’s also another big win for the city of Worcester. … Congrats to both UMass’s Victor Ambros and MGH/Harvard’s Gary Ruvkun, co-winners of the Nobel for their joint discovery of microRNA.

I have an article at Harvard Business School’s Working Knowledge on a new paper that argues election forecasts based on demographic voting trends are usually way off target. In fact, a forecaster would be better off flipping a coin to determine a winner. The HBS paper was written by Vincent Pons, Jesse Shapiro and Richard Calvo. … To Dems who think demographics are destiny: you’ve been warned. See my Friday post below on the same demographics subject.

Btw: I had another political-related piece at HBS Working Knowledge last week: “How politics drives business decisions in a polarized nation.”

State Sen. Michael O. Moore, a Millbury Democrat, is asking all the right questions about State Police recruit training and the culture of corruption at the agency. …

The main question I’d like potential reformers to ask: Do the instructors at the State Police academy have effective say over who does and doesn’t become troopers? They seem to have that power – and thus the power to shape the very character of the agency. And, as we know, that character hasn’t exactly been exemplary.  … Check out the article’s comments section. A lot of other people are connecting the training-and-corrupt-culture dots. 

The Globe’s David Scharfenberg spells out how Dems or Republicans can gain clear majority status in the country – if they can grab the political center. In the case of Dems, it would require moderating many of the positions held dear by the progressive left. I’m rooting for that to happen, since I’d prefer to see a moderate left-of-center majority party in the U.S. But I doubt Dem leaders can, or will, make major changes. They’re too intimidated by the far left.

Fyi: It still amazes me how much sway the extreme wings of both parties have. To be clear: the problem is more acute in the GOP, now dominated by a maniacal narcissist surrounded by the greatest array of crackpots I’ve seen in all my years covering and observing U.S. politics.  

Update – A member of my email group, after reading the Globe piece, writes: “Good article.  Is there room for a third party?  A moderate party that is not held hostage by extreme wings.”

Ruy Teixeira has a fascinating post on the Dems’ declining share of Hispanic votes, a trend borne out by numerous polls and past election data. The trend not only poses an immediate problem for Kamala Harris. It also challenges the very premise of the modern Democratic theory that demographics is destiny, i.e. that demographic changes, primarily the increase in the number of non-white citizens in the U.S., will relentlessly grow the Dem coalition into a majority party, as Teixeira writes.

Then there’s this: the shift in voting is “heavily concentrated among working-class (noncollege) Hispanics.” Sound familiar? Dems have a major working-class/non-college voter problem – and they’ve had it for a long time now.

There are some encouraging signs of a small manufacturing resurgence in the U.S., partly due to various federal policies. But where are the manufacturing jobs going? Mostly the Sun Belt, where land, electricity and labor costs are lower. Needless to say, Massachusetts isn’t a prime destination point for most manufacturing companies. … Like politics, it’s all (mostly) local for manufacturing. 

Good news for the economy (and Kamala Harris): The International Longshoremen’s Association has suspended its East Coast strike after receiving a rather hefty pay raise offer from the U.S. Maritime Alliance. … For Harris, it’s now one down, two to go in terms of major challenges facing the U.S. in the final weeks before the election – the aftermath of Helene and looming all-out war in the Middle East.

I just learned an old friend, Mike Wilson, a now retired investment professional, has started a later-in-life career as a journalist – and recently came out with a new book: “Wolverine Diamonds: A Year in the Life of Michigan Baseball.” … Looks great. Just ordered it. 

Megan McArdle at the Washington Post has news of a free-speech victory in Tewksbury, where the public library first cancelled then uncancelled an invitation to a professor who dared to give a virtual talk titled “Males and Females Are Different, and That Matters in Sports,” following a prior virtual talk by pro-trans-in-sports speaker. … It’s a small, bruised victory. But still a victory.