Amid all of yesterday’s news about global stock market mayhem, the UMass Donahue Institute did release a report showing that the state’s real gross product grew by 3.3 percent in the second quarter, exceeding expectations and exceeding the U.S. growth rate of 2.8 percent in 2Q. … But that data was before last week’s disappointing U.S. jobs data and yesterday’s resulting mini-panic over recession fears.
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Kamala Harris’s first big misstep: Picking Tim Walz
So much for tacking to the center. One can’t help but think Kamala Harris caved to the progressive wing of the party by picking Minnesota’s Tim Walz, who, as the NYT points out, “emerged from a field of candidates who had better name recognition and more politically advantageous states.” … One measly word that only Dems find funny propelled him to the top of her VP-search list? Apparently so. … It’s a disappointing choice. Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro would have helped the ticket more as moderate-liberal governor of a battleground state. He would have also solidified the Jewish-American vote. Walz’s Minnesota? It’s reliably blue. …
But I do like his history teacher, football coach and National Guard background.
Update – The Globe’s pundits react to the Walz pick – and I’m with David Shribman (who calls the selection, well, “weird”) and Shelly Cohen (“Vanilla: The taste of disappointment”).
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Perhaps the worst stock-market analysis ever?
Blaming Kamala Harris for yesterday’s market mayhem? A young-one ideologue connects the dots — and they miraculously confirm her worldview! … Via RealClearMarkets.com, which ought to be embarrassed for highlighting the piece.
Update – Another political pundit discovers what no economist in the whole wide world has found — that Joe Biden is responsible for Monday’s global markets meltdown.
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How bad? Chicago White Sox bad
One of the more forgettable teams in all of sports has found an unforgettable way to be remembered. … I include the White Sox in a Boston blog because I used to follow the White Sox when I lived in Chicago many moons ago. They were a frustrating team then. They’re beyond frustrating now.
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Jittery global markets: Are we headed for a recession?
Global markets are going a little berserk this morning, from Europe to Japan, due to fears of recession in the U.S. … Turns out Larry Edelman nailed it last week with his warning that the Fed was jeopardizing a “soft landing” by not lowering interest rates soon enough. The markets obviously agree.
Update – Larry ‘s on target again: “The risk of a recession is real, but the stock market meltdown is overdone.”
Update II — Paul Krugman thinks that the economy is looking “pre-recessionary” — and that the Fed needs to do something fast, i.e. lower interest rates.
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Aerosmith: ‘Through the great days and screwups’
The Globe’s James Sullivan has a good appreciation piece on Aerosmith, which has announced its retirement from the stage due to Steven Tyler’s damaged vocal cords. … A reader sent in his own mini-appreciation:
“Are Aerosmith done… or not? Through the great days and screwups, they persevered, overcame the dissing and worked their way up to greatness. Nobody will ever convince me that they made a better album than Rocks 48 years ago (I’m playing it now). Although 20 year ago blues tribute Honkin’ On Bobo is nothing to sneeze at. And through it all, they never forgot the hometown… “
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This is Ben Affleck?
Maybe I’ve fallen for an AI hoax. For Ben’s sake, I hope I have. He looks ridiculous in this photo.
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Was Steward the victim of plundering PE pirates? Well, actually, yeah
There really are great private equity firms turning around struggling companies and investing in young start-ups. They’re doing some genuine societal and economic good. Unfortunately, there’s also a subsector of the PE industry that specializes in effectively strip-mining companies and then dumping them into bankruptcy court. This partly explains why PE-owned companies are “about 10 times as likely to go bankrupt as non-PE-owned companies,” as the Enterprising Investor notes. And it largely explains what happened at Steward Healthcare, the local hospital chain driven into bankruptcy by its PE owner after it squeezed the real estate value out of Steward and left the rest of the system in financial shambles. Steward’s demise was ultimately tied to a deliberate ‘sales-leaseback’ strategy often used by PE companies.
Which raises the question: Are some PE firms, or divisions within PE firms, basically the modern business equivalent of plundering pirates? I’d argue ‘yes’ — and that the plundering needs to be banned as it applies to former non-profit entities (like hospitals) that PE firms buy. Brendan Ballou, a former federal prosecutor and special counsel for private equity at the US Department of Justice, has a more nuanced answer in a Q&A at EI, but he makes clear he’s no fan of various PE strategies.
Btw: The American Prospect has a story on how PE firms are “maneuvering to invest in college athletes, their schools, and the conferences they play in.” They’re going after another non-profit sector. What could possibly go wrong?
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The Boston business community can chill out a bit …
Massachusetts lawmakers failed to pass Mayor Wu’s property tax plan that the city’s business community hated. It’s likely to resurface later this year, reports the BBJ’s Greg Ryan, “although at this point it would need to do so in what is known as an informal session, when even a single lawmaker could prevent the measure from becoming law.”
Update – From Bruce Mohl at CommonWealth Beacon: “After failing to complete action on many of their legislative priorities at the end of the session, Beacon Hill Democrats appear to be warming to the idea of finishing their work during informal sessions running through the end of the year.”
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Harris is doing it. She’s actually moving to the center
True-believer progressives can’t do it, i.e. move to the center. They think it’s immoral. They fear the wrath of fellow progressives. They seem clueless that other valid worldviews exist out there. But Kamala Harris? She’s tacking to the center fast – and it’s a politically smart move that may win her the presidency and prevent Donald Trump from regaining the White House. Peggy Noonan has more on Harris’s “bold to the point of shameless” shift.
Personally, I love her shameless shift to the center. She’s doing exactly what she needs to do to win a general election.
Update – She’s driving the right crazy: “Kamala Harris’s Border Chutzpah.”
Update II — I should point out Noonan has legitimate concerns about Harris, including this one: “People will continue to wonder how liberal she is, and how strong she is, but I think an equally or more important question will be how serious she is. Does she think seriously, deeply, soberly? I haven’t seen her betray this tendency. “
