Here are some thoughts on midterm contests and referendum questions that Hub Blog will be paying especially close attention to come Tuesday.

Prediction market prediction vs Hub Blog prediction: Blue wave cometh?

I’d love to see the entire Prediction Market banned. Gambling is out of control in this country. But seeing that it’s here (and probably here to stay, unfortunately), I hope the market’s prediction of an anti-Trump tsunami is right. Yet I’m a pessimist in situations like this, and partly for good reason due to past recent polling. My prediction: solid showing for Dems in the House, but no Senate takeover.

Old fogies get it right

Definitely read Peggy Noonan’s WSJ piece. The former speech writer for Presidents Reagan and Bush the First  thinks and hopes a “big, big wave is coming” in favor of Dems, thus breaking Trump’s spell over the GOP:

Let it be a clear and obvious rebuke—a rejection, a rebellion, a rout. If it is a small wave, stasis continues. We continue in Washington with the embarrassment of one party tinnily yipping about nothing and to no effect, and the other party showing slavish obeisance to a man they know shouldn’t be president.

Meanwhile, another old-time pundit, the Post’s George Will, is rooting for the new “Lincoln Party” to eventually succeed in Indiana – and that it shakes up the current two-party duopoly there and elsewhere.

Mike Minogue: He’s no Scott Brown

If underdog Mike Minogue beats Gov. Maura Healey on Tuesday, it would be as big an upset as Scott Brown’s shocking victory over Maura Healey in 2010. But Brown wasn’t saddled with Donald Trump in 2010 – and Minogue is no Scott Brown. So  Healey wins on Tuesday, though with a smaller margin than expected, and Minogue can then start mulling a potential future run.

Independents, unite!

Jon Keller has a good column at MassterList on how the state’s key Independent voters aren’t enthusiastic about either Healey or Minogue – and that’s bad news for Minogue. Like all GOP candidates in Massachusetts, he needs as much Independent support as he can get – and he’s not getting it.

Speaking of Independents in general, from Fareed Zakaria at the Post:“Voters are not polarized. They are up for grabs.”

Question 3: A coin flip on a needed reform

I’d like to see Question 3 pass, as previously noted, but I don’t have a strong gut instinct about whether it will pass or not. It’s going to be close. Though a supporter of the “all-party” primary reform, one of my concerns is that its passage will merely re-energize backers of ranked-choice voting, a system that would give more adamant voters (read: ideologues, left and right) an edge over others.

Question 7: Easy passage for another welcome reform

It won’t make a big impact on the housing front, but Question 7 is an admirable attempt to make it easier to build more homes on smaller lots in Massachusetts. It should pass somewhat easily, if polls are right.

Maine Senate race: Almost as crazy as the Michigan and Alaska races

I didn’t think the Maine U.S. Senate race could get crazier – or maybe the right word is uglier — than the Senate contests in Alaska and Michigan. But the last-minute GOP ads accusing Democrat Troy Jackson of shacking up with his second cousin has to be some kind of new low. And it may well boomerang on Susan Collins. I’m going with Jackson on both the prediction and hoped for fronts.