The WSJ and 60 Minutes (video here) had excellent pieces over the weekend about military insiders using the new “prediction markets” to bet on future military actions by the U.S. – and how they’re giving new meaning to the phrase “war profiteering.” But my complaint is with those who describe the acts as a form of “insider trading,” buying into the farce that prediction markets are “trading in commodities” and in need of firmer regulation by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. …  But Kalshi, Polymarket et gang are gambling operations – and everyone knows it except some lawyers and judges who can’t think their way out of legal-definitional corners that they’ve painted themselves into. In fact, military insiders betting on future military actions should be charged with criminal disclosure of classified information, espionage or even treason, not slapped on the wrist by the CFTC. They’re literally gambling with American lives and national security. It’s sick. …

Btw: How weird are the prediction markets? Cryptocurrency holders are now empowered to arbitrate some prediction-market “trade” disputes, such as fights over an Israel-Hezbollah cease-fire, as the WSJ reports. … Prediction markets and cryptocurrency combining forces. Quite a pair, huh? There’s got to be a WWE angle here somewhere. Maybe here?

Update — 5.24.26 – From the NYT: “How Prediction Markets and Crypto Firms Steamrolled a Watchdog Agency”