Donald Trump faced it in 2020. Joe Biden faced it writ large in 2024. And now, at the state level, Gov. Maura Healey is facing it. What, pray tell, are we talking about? The dreaded cost-of-living topic, aka affordability. The Globe had a good piece earlier this week on how the three GOP gubernatorial candidates are pounding away at the state’s economy, portraying it in nightmare terms and blaming Healey for the affordability apocalypse. Needless to say, Healey has a different, sunnier view of the state’s economy, as the Globe reports.

But the best way to view today’s gubernatorial race – and most other races around the country — is through Jon Keller’s elegant, sophisticated, analytical formulation as outlined last year: “It’s just a crappy time to be an incumbent.” And it is a crappy time partly due today’s hyper-partisan political polarization and partly due to an economy that seems to be squeezing Americans at every turn. 

So GOP candidates are smart to focus on affordability issues. Healey is the incumbent during these crappy times. And she happens to be vulnerable on some of the affordability issues. But you know what? She’s still going to win. The state’s economy isn’t that bad. She isn’t that big of a progressive. There’s also an almost limitless reservoir of anti-Trump sentiment for her to tap into in this bluest of blue states. She’ll take her share of knocks over the coming year, some of which she deserves.  Her poll numbers will probably droop. But, again, she’s going to win.