I don’t want him to lose. But I think Seth Moulton is indeed going to lose in his bid to oust near-octogenarian U.S. Sen. Ed Markey for the same reason that I cited last month: Democratic primary battles in Massachusetts tend to favor incumbent progressives. No matter what he says, Moulton is more of a moderate than Markey – and Markey is more of a progressive than Moulton – and that’s how activist progressive voters will see the two next year. Forget Markey’s age. Progressives will support Markey ‘cause he’s one of them. Moulton? He’s too impure and unpredictable for many lefties. … Also, forget the recent poll by the conservative Fiscal Alliance that shows Moulton beating Markey among general election Dems, as the Herald reports. This is a primary fight, not a general-election fight. … Bottom line: it’s going to be a tough race. But unless Markey, normally a terrific campaigner, pulls an on-stage Biden and is forced to step aside, I just don’t see him losing.

Fyi: The Globe’s James Pindell has the obvious Kennedy-vs-Markey angle covered. The Globe’s Joan Vennochi thinks Markey should retire, but doubts he will. It’s all about ambition for both men, she writes.

Update — 10.16.25 – From Scott Van Voorhis at Contrarian Boston: “Is this Seth Moulton tilting at windmills again? Or does the North Shore congressman truly spy a path to victory? Time will tell, but Moulton faces long odds as he takes on Sen. Ed Markey.”

Update II — 10.16.25 – From the Herald’s Joe Battenfeld: “Seth Moulton’s campaign on a superficial, shaky foundation: age.” … And the Herald is separately reporting Markey’s campaign is already on the attack.