Even though President Trump on Monday rejected the EU’s offer of a “zero-zero” tariffs deal, my hunch is that a zero-zero agreement, or a variation of one, with individual countries is probably going to be how the president wriggles out of the giant tariff mess he’s created. … Two GOP lawmakers are urging him to take the EU deal – and similar offers.  Meanwhile, conservative economic gurus Arthur Laffer and Stephen Moore write at the WSJ that a “smart and urgent exit strategy” is indeed accepting offers from individual countries for zero tariffs. Of course, Elon Musk is also making the same argument. … 

The Trump administration’s chief tariffs cheerleader, Peter Navarro, is urging Trump to hold firm on tariffs. And maybe Trump will. At the least, he’ll have to hold firm for a while because he’ll look weak if he’s seen as caving too soon on tariffs. He also probably has some favorite tariffs he wants to keep for favored pals and industries. But when you think about it, the zero-zero solution, or something resembling it, makes sense. It would allow him to declare victory on tariffs – and it actually would be a victory, albeit one achieved at a terrible cost, if it leads to lower trade barriers in general. Even if he cuts deals with just a handful of prominent trade partners, it would help calm markets. It’s the logical thing for Trump to do. But this president is anything but logical. 

Update – From the NYT: “Trump Officials Signal Openness to Tariff Talks.” … But they’re also saying talks won’t prevent new tariffs from taking effect.

Update II – 4.9.25 — Obviously, China is in its own Trump tariffs doghouse and reaching a final deal with Beijing will be tricky. Until an agreement is reached, it’s a full-on trade war with China.

Update II – 4.10.25 – So much for my zero-zero predictions. Trump has once again delayed/backed down on tariffs, or at least most of them. I should have known. …