Re President Trump agreeing to pause the Mexican and Canadian tariffs before they even went into effect: I told you so. … This is the Trump administration pattern to watch for in coming months and years: declaring great and glorious victories – and then quickly moving on before people realize the great and glorious successes were either very minor or non-existent. … That’s what happened with the Columbia tariff threats. That’s what happened with the Mexican-Canadian tariff threats. It’s what probably will happen with the new China tariffs, though this one may take a little longer for the administration to find an excuse to declare victory and get out.

Here’s why these tariff wars will, usually, remain tariff skirmishes unless they spin out of control: Trump knows full well long-term tariffs are harmful to the economy. And that’s why he’ll huff and puff on tariffs but will be extremely reluctant to impose actual long-term tariffs. He knows they’ll lead to higher prices. He knows Americans really hate inflation, as evidenced by last year’s presidential-election results. He knows he’s playing with economic and political fire.

Believe it or not, all of this partly ties into Scott Lehigh’s Globe column the other week about how to deal with a colossal egomaniac like Donald Trump: PLACATE him. That’s what the leaders of Columbia, Mexico etc. are learning. It’s what other countries are learning. Find a way to placate him. It’s got to involve a small morsel of success so he can declare victory and brag to the masses, a face-saving component that covers his tracks as he conducts a non-retreat retreat.

There will be times when his achievements are more than just minor – and we’ll need to recognize them as genuine achievements, as Peggy Noonan has astutely noted. By and large, though, he will engage in petty fights that lead to petty results that he’ll inevitably portray as great triumphs.  That’s just who he is.

Update – From the WSJ: “Trump Blinks on North American Tariffs.” … And he blinked after securing ‘minor concessions,’ as the WSJ notes.