They did it in 2016 and 2020, i.e. polls underestimating Donald Trump’s level of support across the country, partly because many of his backers are reluctant to admit they like Trump. Is the same thing happening this year? This latest NBC poll paints a generally rosy picture for Kamala Harris. But the latest NYT/Siena poll is more sobering (for Harris backers). It shows Trump remaining ahead in the key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia and N.C. … My gut says the NYT/Sienna poll is probably more accurate. My rule of thumb: Always add an extra percentage point or two to Trump’s poll numbers, just to be safe, based on past disappointing experience.