David Van Voorhis, aka Statman at Scott Van Voorhis’s newsletter, has a fascinating analysis (scroll to bottom) on post-debate polling in general, raising key points people should consider in the wake of Tuesday’s presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris: 1.) Trump has a record of losing presidential debates by an average of 23 percent, so Tuesday night’s performance statistically wasn’t too off from the norm. 2) results from the last 21 presidential debates since 1996 suggest Harris could see a bump of 1 to 1.5 percent in post-debate polls. 3.) quoting polling guru Nate Siliver, Van Voorhis says it may take a week or two to get accurate post-debate polling. …

Definitely read his full analysis. A 1 to 1.5 percent bump for Harris sounds about right to me, btw.